South Asian Strategic Stability Institute http://www.sassi.org SASSI Wed, 30 May 2012 10:03:41 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 Seminar: Multilateral Cooperation for Security http://www.sassi.org/?p=1401 http://www.sassi.org/?p=1401#comments Tue, 22 May 2012 11:04:38 +0000 admin http://www.sassi.org/?p=1401 “Multilateral Cooperation for Security: The Example of

Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)”

Organised by

South Asian Strategic Stability Institute

10 January 2012

A Seminar was conducted at Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad (ISSI) on Tuesday 10 th of January 2012, titled “Multilateral Cooperation for Security: The Example of Chemical Weapons Conventions (CWC)”, with the collaboration of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, South Asian strategic Stability Institute (SASSI), Department of International Relations, QAU & Institute of Strategic Studies Research & Analysis (ISSRA), NDU. H.E. Ambassador Ahmet Uzumch, Director General, Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) the Hague, was the Chief Guest of the seminar.

The seminar was chaired by Chairman ISSI Ambassador (retd) Gul Hanif. Ambassador Gul Hanif in his opening remarks welcomed the honourable chief guest and guest speakers. Later he said that we have a new generation of threats and risks and this is case in situation of violence by non-state actors. He mentioned that the case of chemical warfare was central to the political and academic debate on disarmament law and negotiation, and cooperation amongst states on a multi-planar level. He said that we are able to rely upon robust regimes. And most important point is to see the loop holes and grey areas. In this context we need collective efforts.

Second speaker of the seminar was Dr. Irfan Yusuf Shami, Director General Disarmament & CWC National Authority discussed about Pakistan’s on going collaboration with CWC. He emphasized that the CWC remained to be the only international treaty in recent history that has unilaterally and uncategorically called for the complete destruction of chemical weapons. According to Dr Shami, both the CWC and the OPWC are fundamental cornerstones for international non-proliferation and disarmament efforts. He said that Pakistan continues to follow the obligations of CWC since 1993.Pakistan participated in international and regional events of CWC. Pakistan remains fully committed to work with CWC and OPCW.

 Air Cmdr Khalid Banuri Director ACDA Strategic Plans Division said that the work of CWC is assumed as a success story. CWC is the most widely recognized and groundbreaking treaty due to the fact that its implementation was a robust example of effective multi-lateralism at work. Yet complete universality and mutual cooperation is essential to safe the world from threat of chemical weapons. And this is the only way to ensure security.

Brig Muhammad Khurshid Khan, Director Internal Studies & Centre of Excellence for 4 th Generation warfare, ISRA, NDU expressed his views on the topic of “Applying OPCW Model on current and emerging international security threats”. He said to apply this OPCW model on current threats we need mutual and sincere cooperation. According to him, the CWC has managed to make tremendous progress in spite of a myriad of challenges. One pertinent challenge that still exists within the CWC was that there were a number of state parties who had signed but not yet ratified the treaty: moreover, these states were exceptionally vulnerable to conflict due to insecure internal domestic and political situations.

Dr Zafar Jaspal, Associate Professor, Department of International Relations at the Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad described the WMD terrorism and it countermeasures and further he elaborate on the multilateral cooperation discussed the implications of increasing globalization and fast paced development: these two factors, he said, have made it extremely difficult to control and monitor the proliferation of weapons. In particular he pointed to the dual use of technology and how this phenomenon coincided with increasingly porous borders to make the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons a very serious threat to mankind.

Dr Maria Sultan, Director South Asian Strategic Stability Institute emphasized on the role of NGO’s under the Chemical weapon convention. She commended the OPWC for having taken tremendous initiative, but also said there needs to be continued working on policy making at the micro and macro levels in order to create a successful interface for effective negotiation.

Last speaker of the session was H.E Dr Ahmet Uzumcu, Director General of the OPCW atThe Hague. He expressed his sincere gratitude to the Government of Pakistan for its invitation to visitIslamabad. He acknowledgedPakistan’s immensely constructive role in helping the OPCW reach its target of a world free of chemical weapons. Dr Uzumcu recognized that the value and importance of multilateralism depended greatly on sustainable progress: especially since there was no alternative to multilateralism in combating current and future international challenges in the context of a globalization.

Dr Uzumcu said that the case of chemical weapons in particular should provide hope and encouragement. Dr Uzumcu described the objective of the CWC as singularly encompassing peace and security as the collective responsibility of all member states, and verified the destruction of over 71% of international weapon stockpiles. He stated that the development of national preparedness was an essential task so that states could respond appropriately in the eventuality of an attack or accident. He said that more than 2000 verifications had been conducted in over 80 countries. He ended by acknowledging the support extended byPakistanto the OPWC, and projected that by 2016, only 1% of weapons will remain to be destroyed.

The session was followed by question and answer session. This session proved to be an interactive session.

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Conference: Standards of Education for 21st Century Pak http://www.sassi.org/?p=1394 http://www.sassi.org/?p=1394#comments Tue, 22 May 2012 10:21:45 +0000 admin http://www.sassi.org/?p=1394 Organized by

Higher Education Commission (HEC) &

South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)

May 26, 2011

A one day National Conference on Setting Standards for 21 st Century Pakistan was organized by Higher Education Commission to explain the role being played by HEC in developing Higher Education in the country. SASSI was the official sponsor for this conference and Director General Dr. Maria Sultan chaired a session during the conference. The theme of the conference was to demonstrate the role played by HEC in various direction of country’s development towards self sufficiency. First Panel explained the role of HEC in providing skilled and qualified manpower which is being utilized in various fields of national economy and is being used for Research, Innovation and Industry.

During the presentations, Panel participants also elaborated the role being played by the universities in building and developing the sustainable economy every where in the world in general and in Pakistan in particular. It was in this session, that the quality of research being carried out in these universities was demonstrated in the exhibition hall, where representatives of various large as well as medium scale institutes exhibited their research products and innovative ideas. Participants of second panel gave their presentations on the long term goal being achieved by the universities under the banner of HEC.

The presenters argued that implementation of guide lines given to universities by HEC planners has provided the base for arming the youth or future leaders of Pakistan with most sophisticated knowledge of various sciences which has enabled them to share their efforts for country’s progress and prosperity. Similarly, such initiatives have transformed the rigid societies into modern and elastic communities, which is all because of the central role of HEC that has revolutionized the country’s higher education system. The Third Panel participants came up with the theme of HEC as playing the most important role for “Provincial Harmony” in the country, thus recognizing the status of HEC as of a central pillar in country’s higher education system, making it necessary to remain functioning as an institution of central level. SASSI participated in the event with all of its team under the leadership of Director General Dr. Maria Sultan.

Conference Concept

The convergence of knowledge–based organizations is a pre-requisite for socio-economic growth in the era of new innovations and exploration. Research & Development (R&D) are the first and foremost ingredients in this respect. Higher Education Commission (HEC) is facilitating institutions of Higher Learning to serve as an engine of growth for the Socio-Economic Development of Pakistan.

As intellectual capital based on new knowledge is mandatory for economic growth, it will lead to dramatic rise in the demand for higher education. Universities produce knowledge, information, innovation, research and commercialization for building strong communities and economies. Therefore, the role of university leaders who are well aware of latest trends and innovations cannot be ignored for creating knowledge based economy.

For university-industry technology transfer, the universities around the world have increased the volume of their research in just few decades. In the same way, Higher Education institutions in Pakistan have been accelerating on indigenous research in the fields of natural & social sciences and applied technologies. The key decision makers and stakeholders who realize the worth of research keeping in view of socio-economic development pave the way for a strong and sustainable need based research culture.

Universities in Pakistan have vociferously responded to all the initiatives carried out by Higher Education Commission (HEC) in the way of research and development (R&D).

“In the 18 th Amendment in the 1973 Constitution of Pakistan, many ministries including education have to be handed over to the provinces in accordance with power distribution between Federation and Provinces. HEC as an independent body for higher education is expected to be dissolved which is legally incorrect. To highlight the legal aspects on one hand and contribution of higher education towards setting new standards in Pakistan on the other hand, HEC is organizing its first ever National Conference titled, “Setting Standards for the 21 st Century Pakistan.”

Most of the states made their recognition through research and development for instance, Japanese innovation in electronics, Americans weapon modernization, Indians technological advancement, etc. Now, knowledge economy has been the right slogan for socio-economic development.”

HEC envisions a 21 st Century Pakistan which brings quality and culture of creativity, research, innovation and commercialization across Pakistani HEIs. It is to be done by taking the following steps:

  • Creation of a sustainable national policy ensuring university society and university-industry potential;
  • Building and encouraging university-society partnership;
  • Creation of entrepreneurial culture in academic institutions and support organization;
  • Enabling private-sector investment in new technologies and technology-based companies;
  • Championing the role of universities in community and economic development;
  • Driving a paradigm shift where human resource is an asset how can covert our demography into our assets.

HEC strives for a strong academic and industry link and tries to bring both closer. The conference is aimed to give an opportunity to the stakeholders of Pakistan to come forward and define the need for university research.

The great camaraderie of policy makers and opinion leaders should have a national pledge to promote university-community and university industry technology transfer in the interest of building a stronger Pakistan.

This one day conference also focuses on realizing the importance of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) as envisioned in the Higher Education Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) 2010-15, a policy document and how they can play an instrumental role in building societies and economy of Pakistan. MTDF needs to become the national policy.

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Conference: Fissile Material Treaty – Possibility & Prospects http://www.sassi.org/?p=1378 http://www.sassi.org/?p=1378#comments Tue, 22 May 2012 10:13:18 +0000 admin http://www.sassi.org/?p=1378 Three Day International Inaugural Conference 2011

Organized by

South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)

20-22 March 2011

SASSI organized a Three Day International Inaugural Conference 2011 titled “Fissile Material Treaty: Possibility and Prospects” on 20-22nd March 2011 at the Islamabad Serena Hotel.

Dr. Maria Sultan , Director General South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) in her welcome remarks stated “The Conference on Disarmament (CD), the sole United Nations body mandated to negotiate arms control and disarmament treaties, is currently facing a dead lock in negotiations related to the banning of fissile material. The reasons for this dead lock needs to be analyzed in a bigger picture and cannot be seen in narrow terms of any state blocking the consensus.”

The key note addresses was delivered by Mr.   Rehman Malik , Federal Interior Minister of Pakistan who stated “He stated that the word ‘discrimination’ is hated by the entire world. Pakistan in recent years has been facing discrimination by some major powers. Now, if some states emphasize on Pakistan to stop producing fissile materials, the world is recognizing its status as a Nuclear Weapon State (NWS).” He expressed that, “If we know how to produce nuclear weapons, we also know to protect them. Pakistan is a peaceful nuclear power and its programme is in safe hands”.

Air Chief Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman , Chief of Air Staff Force also delivered the key note address and stated “He said that Pakistani nuclear arsenal is in safe hands and its command and control system is one of the world’s best. Pakistan wants peace in the region and is playing vital role in this regard”. ACM Suleman said “Pakistanis following a policy of peaceful co-existence in the region but at the same time it cannot remain oblivious to developments taking place in South Asia.”

Dr. Javaid R. Laghari , Chairman Higher Education Commission (HEC), Pakistan also participated in the workshop as a keynote speaker and stated “ The occurrence  of  almost  50  research  publications over the  last  six years  and the  holding of almost over  36  international   workshops and  seminars and  58  in house and  bilateral  meetings  is reasons  for the  HEC to  be  rightly  proud  of this partnership  and the faith  in ventures  which  are   both  public  and  private; setting  new  standards  and  life   in the   much wanted  research  application in Pakistan.” He highlighted that “The Conference would deliberate on the FMT, and justifies the need for consensus to start negotiations, which are central to international non-proliferation and arms control and disarmament measures and keeping the effectiveness of the Conference on Disarmament (CD) as the custodian of the multi-lateralism in international arms control negotiations.”

Mr. Nasir Naveed Dogar (Research Fellow SASSI) stated “P-5 along with India are of the view that the treaty should only ban the future production of fissile material for nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices while majority of the G-21 states along with Pakistan are in favour of a treaty which ban the future production and pre-existing stocks of fissile material.”

Shumaila Ishaque Chaudhry (Research Fellow SASSI) stated “Pakistanis not blocking the negotiations it is trying to ensure that negotiations are reflective of the original mandate of the treaty that is general and complete nuclear disarmament.Pakistan’s argument is that if CD wants to strengthen the disarmament and non-proliferation measures it should also focus on other agenda items.”

Adil Sultan (Deputy Director Arms Control & Disarmament Affairs SPD) said that “unfortunately undue pressure is being put on Pakistan and some states are blaming Pakistan for blocking progress on FMT.Pakistanis not alone in its position on FMT many other states are in favor ofPakistan’s stance.”

Tahir Nazir (Research Fellow SASSI) stated that “balance of commitment from nuclear weapons states to non nuclear weapon states have not been fulfilled, because Negative Security Assurance is just an assurance but not legally binding international treaty.”

Professor Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal (Advisor on Nuclear Affairs SASSI) stated that “There is corporate interest and Military Industrial Complex (MIC) which is moving towards world domination in space technology on behalf of the global corporate culture.”

Ms. Sajida Mansoor (Research Fellow SASSI) stated “the efforts regarding preserving space for peaceful uses dates back to Late 1950’s and the real source of concern of states is the lack of a substantive process to prevent the weaponization of space and trade of dual use high tech space technologies on the basis of exceptionalism.”

Mr. Li Chang-HE (Vice President, China Arms Control and Disarmament Association CACDA, China) stated “China joined consensus for the adoption of 48/75 L Resolution of United Nations General Assembly and voted for the relevant resolutions in UNGA, in support of the establishment of Ad-Hoc Committee to negotiate the FMCT on the basis of the mandate contained in the “Shannon Report” with an expectation that the treaty would be conducive to nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament..”

Ms. Rida Zeenat (Research Fellow SASSI) stated “Although BMD is defensive technology, highly expensive and technologically uncertain but its possession fortifies a state to adopt offensive policies. India has moved from deterrence to pre-emption compelling states to further improve their response option which destabilizes the strategic equation of the entire region and this makes FMCT out of question forPakistan.”

Dr. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema (Dean Faculty of Contemporary Studies National Defence University) stated that “the stockpile issue was addressed; the path of FMT would be easy as Pakistan could not then resist it. Since his presentation was on ‘Rise of India and the Non-Proliferation Regime”

Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema (Head of Department of Nuclear and Strategic Studies NDU) mandated that “The concept of deterrence stability in South Asiais complex and deterrence stability may be understood to include a number of mutually overlapping core ideas. The nuclear stability, deterrence stability, arms race stability, escalation control stability and crisis stability are other core ideas related to deterrence stability.”

Dr. Anton Khlopkov (Director, Center for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS)Russia) stated that the “Conference on Disarmament should be the first choice to discuss and develop this treaty. It should also be a verifiable treaty.”

Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, Former Advisor to Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) on International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) matters/ Associate Fellow SASSI stated that “Pakistan’s security is not status motivated but its security concerns and strategic dynamic of the region has compelled Pakistan to rely heavily on the nuclear weapons.”

Mr. Masood Ur Rehman Khattak (Research Fellow SASSI) said that “Deterrence inSouth Asia is delicate because of rapid militarization and operationalization of CSD. This Doctrine has the potential not only to operationalize Indian military doctrine on the basis of pre-emption but can also trigger a nuclear conflict. India practiced ten exercises from 2004-2010 and they practice all of the components of CSD.”

Mr. Sultan M. HAli (Ex- Air Force officer Anchor PTV) talked about the comparative analysis of Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Indian Air Force (IAF) capabilities.

Mr. Zawar Abidi (Senior Research Fellow, SASSI) highlighted that the “devastating effects of the nuclear technology in the WWII, which brought an end to the war, made the developed world in general and the US in particular realize that nuclear technology could be used as a source of much required energy for the industrial and economical development of the human being around the globe and lot of revenue could be generated.”

Ms. Anum Fayyaz (Research Fellow, SASSI) elaborated the conceptual framework of Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) that it is a nuclear cartel, established in 1975 in response to 1974 Indian nuclear explosion.

Dr. Zafar ullah Koreshi (Dean Faculty of Engineering, Air University, Islamabad) stated “Objectives of projected treaty as it would be beneficial to all humanity. He emphasized on peaceful uses of nuclear energy by stipulating that we all want energy free of fossil-fuels, pollution of nuclear waste and radiation issues.”

Mr. Nasir Hafeez (Lecturer National Defense University) Capping on development of nuclear weapons. He stated that the cap on development of nuclear weapons is a natural process and not a treaty based necessity and FMCT in its current form is a destabilizing factor in regional security environment.

Ms. Nimrah Safdar (Research Fellow SASSI) stated that the US is garbing unilateralism in the shape of multi-lateralism and compared the Bush administration policies on nuclear disarmament with Obama administration.

Mark Hibbs (Senior Associate, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA) said that “There is increasing divergence of rising, global-looking India and regionally focused Pakistan with a comparatively weaker state.”

Ambassador Shaukat Umer (Former Permanent Representative of Pakistan United Nations (UN), Geneva) stated that “Pakistan is the last entrant into the nuclear program. There are enormous stockpiles unverifiable that can be diverted at disposal of the US and Russia. There is an inherent lack of equality. Pakistan is not the only country which is delaying the negotiations of CD agenda.”

Prof. Maurizio Martellini (Secretary General Landau, Network- Centro Volta) stated that “Pakistan is right that there is an asymmetry in the region and he emphasized that Pakistan’s supreme national interests should not be jeopardized by the proposed treaty. He concluded that the Conference on Disarmament (CD) cannot work in vacuum.”

Brig. (R) Naeem Salik , Associate Fellow, South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) said “Indian pursuit of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system poses challenges on Pakistan’s security calculus. He explained that Pakistan cannot draw the line at credible minimum deterrence.”

Mansoor Ahmed (Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Quaid-e-Azam University) said “In the wake of the commissioning of KANUPP in 1972, a long term nuclear plan was approved to develop the nuclear fuel cycle and a nuclear power program through international cooperation.”

Dr. Malfrid B Hegghammer (Fellow Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies, Norway) was of the view that “South Asia is a home of two nuclearised countries surrounded by non-nuclear weapons states like, Afghanistan and other neighbouring small states. These developments will further promote and encourage these states to develop their own nuclear weapons for security measures.”

Mr. Muhammad Malick (Resident Editor, The News/Senior Journalist) was of the view that “the Indo-US nuclear deal seriously undermines global non-proliferation agenda. There is a growing need to achieve nuclear disarmament on global level and not on the interests of the major powers, which is guiding a policy of discrimination.”

Air Commodore Khalid Banuri (Director Arms Control & Disarmament Affairs (ACDA), Strategic Plans Division (SPD) “Pakistanhas expressed serious concern over policies and trends of selectivity, exceptionalism and discrimination relating to strategic export control regimes. Such policies, detrimental as they are to international peace and security, undermine the credibility of the existing non-proliferation regime and are inconsistent with the national laws and international obligations.”

Larry Macfaul (Senior Researcher, Verification Research Training and Information Centre (VERTIC) stated that “the Shannon Mandate proposed a treaty to ban the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices and that should be non-discriminatory multilateral and internationally and effectively verifiable.”

Mr. Hamayoun Khan (Lecturer, National Defense University) said that “Pakistanis in support of FMT which deals with all the state parties equally and gives sense of security to all the state parties. Any treaty which will hinder security of Pakistan will not be able to serve its purpose. Conference on Disarmament (CD) is the most appropriate forum to negotiate FMT and other arms control and disarmament issues.”

Mr. Saeed Khan (Research Fellow SASSI) said that “Pakistanon board the U.S.needs to focus on addressing Pakistan’s strategic concerns and the slow degradation of deterrence vis-à-visIndia. Any biased and discriminatory policies towards India and Pakistan should be avoided which disturb the strategic stability in South Asia.”

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Bilateral Talk: Pak-Russia Collaboration & Prospects http://www.sassi.org/?p=1370 http://www.sassi.org/?p=1370#comments Sat, 19 May 2012 09:50:14 +0000 admin http://www.sassi.org/?p=1370 Strategic Stability: Pak-Russia Collaboration and Prospects

Organized by

South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)

January 25, 2011

South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) organized a bilateral talk with Russian delegation on “Strategic Stability: Pak-Russia Collaboration and Prospects” on Tuesday, 25 th January, 2011 at Marriott Hotel, Islamabad.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei A. Ryabkov was the Chief Guest and in his delegation, were present H.E. Andrey S. Budnik (Ambassador at the Russian Embassy in Pakistan), Artem Y. Rudnitsky (Minister-Counsellor Deputy Head ofMission) and Sergey Y. Ivanov (Attaché). Other participants from Pakistani side included, Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Dr. N. A. Zuberi Director Projects, Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB), Dr. Nouman Sattar from National Defence University, Col. Jaffery, Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema, Brig. Khursheed from IIUI, Col. Zafar and Lt. Col. Zawar Abidi from Strategic Plans Division (SPD), Brig. Ajab, Dr. Hamid Saleem from National Centre for Physics (NCP), and Former Amb. Ali Sarwar Naqvi Senior Associate Fellow, SASSI.

Director General, SASSI Dr. Maria Sultan welcomed the guests and highlighted the significance of the event as this provided a great opportunity to both the sides to sit together and to discuss the prospects for possible collaboration in multiple areas ranging from trade, energy, science and technology to the nuclear safety and security issues. She talked about Pakistan’s efforts related to nuclear safety and security system. She suggested that Pakistan can be benefited from the Russian experience in handling the critical issues with regards to safe transport, usage and waste disposal of radioactive sources, training in mitigation of radiological consequences, establishing nuclear forensics laboratories and so on and so forth.

 This was an event of utmost significance as a number of issues for promoting collaboration and cooperation between Russia and Pakistan were discussed in depth. Participants explored the prospects for possible cooperation in the areas of science and technology, energy sector, trade, military equipment, students and experts’ exchanges in the field of science, medicine and nuclear sciences. There were discussed the various regional and international issues that have been impacting on Pakistan’s national security interests such as, Indian Military’s Cold Start Doctrine, Indian ambitions with regards to its BMD program and the Afghan Crisis etc.

 Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei A. Ryabkov stated that, “Russiais onPakistan’s side. They have much in common and they can collaborate in energy sector, science and technology, infrastructure building, peace and security. Pakistan and Russia will be core and crucial partners in the region and will work together in broad and progressive relationship.” He further said that, “the interaction at the international forum will definitely add value to many changes. Something seriously is on the move and is working to have university exchange programmes.”

Participants of the bilateral talk also reviewed developments related to international and regional security, including arms control, nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation issues like Russian take on the FMCT, PAROS, and New START Treaty.

It is advisable for Russia and Pakistan to hold such wide-ranging talks on increasing cooperation with each other in multifaceted fields on regular basis to find the common grounds that can help in ensuring progress, peace and stability in the region.

Main Context:

Dr. Maria Sultan D.G SASSI gave a presentation on Pakistan Nuclear program and emphasized on the point that Pakistan has multi-tiered safety and security program. She briefed aboutPakistan nuclear plants in Kahuta, Chashma, etc. she also highlighted the factors that pose challenges to the south Asian strategic stability “Cold Start Doctrine” being the primary one. She concluded her presentation by pointing out a number of fields whereRussia can assistPakistan for example nuclear forensics, border monitoring radiation detection equipment and etc.

Sergei Ryabkov Russian Deputy Foreign Minister was of the view thatRussia is onPakistan’s side. Both the states have much in common and co-operation is visible on foreign sides of both the states. He said that in energy sector, science and technology structural areas, peace and security both the countries need to work with collaboration.

He saidRussiaandPakistanare great proponents of multilateralism; they have worked together in several issues like activities of IAEA, arms treaties and other relevant topics. Joint analysis ofRussiaandPakistanis seen on international events like BWC, CWC, non proliferation issues, disarmament, and arms control. They are core and crucial states in the region but can work together to have broad and progressive relationship. This is extremely important to move forward and to have win-win situation in the neighborhood realistic and sober approach should be the core idea. Leaders should contact and even people to people contact should be there. This will add value to relationship and interaction at international forums is also extremely important as it will add value to many changes.

In the end he said that something I surely on the move and are also working to have student exchange programs.

Later participants from Pakistan highlighted the areas where possible Russian collaboration with Pakistan can be made. The areas are given below:

  • University Exchange program.
  • Military Equipment.
  • Energy Sector.
  • Nuclear forensics.
  • Radio Hydrological for cancer therapy
  • Human resource area
  • Border monitoring radiation detection equipment
  • Science and Technology.
  • Infrastructure.

Conclusion:

The talk was successful and was able to achieve its aim. The two sides reaffirmed their commitment to deepen their relationship and take pragmatic steps towards promoting a comprehensive partnership between Pakistan and Russia.

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Workshop: Future for High-Tech Industry Development in Pak http://www.sassi.org/?p=1365 http://www.sassi.org/?p=1365#comments Sat, 19 May 2012 08:34:06 +0000 admin http://www.sassi.org/?p=1365 Organized by

South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) &

The Center for International Trade and Security (CITS)

University of Georgia, USA

 7th -9th December, 2010

Conference Report

 

High technological trade is one of the fastest rising trends in contemporary era. This rise is evident from current trends in global trade where developed nations are continuously enhancing and modernizing themselves in the fields of nuclear technology, nuclear fuel cycles, strategic dual use technologies, nanotechnology, telecommunications, medicines, agriculture, and industrial infrastructure. Pakistan, having realized the importance of high-tech trade and industry, is trying to follow the same line as a blue print for its success and development. As a result, Pakistan is developing a high-tech trade and industry sector is currently working as the most effective and dynamic driver towards the resurgence of Pakistan’s economy. Its performance is remarkable, particularly regarding the generation of outputs and income, yet certain technological and legislative barriers, that hinderPakistan’s struggle to move out of the list of third world countries, need to be dealt with sincere focus, consistent efforts and international cooperation in its true essence.

To meet these objectives, South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) organized a three day workshop on “Future of High-Tech Development in Pakistan” which was aimed at highlighting Pakistan’s existing and future potentials regarding High-Tech Industry as well as trade. The workshop was organized to serve as a viable platform for exposing Pakistan’s industrial sector to the international economic community and to communicate to the world that Pakistanis open to; in fact it looks forward to international cooperation and collaboration in the realm of high-tech development. Pakistan’s economy has flourished greatly and today it is ranked the 29 th largest economy in the world, with tremendous potential to grow at a much faster pace, if provided access to Global High-Tech market. Main goal of the workshop was to bring together the major Think Tanks, Experts from around the world as well as Government Officials and Specialists from International and National Organizations to work together on the evolving trends in High-Tech trade, International and National export control laws & mechanisms and to explore new opportunities for the development of Pakistan’s High Tech industry.

Speakers at the workshop emphasized that Pakistan should be given access to the international high-tech market; that small industries should be incorporated, both structurally and functionally into big/heavy industrial sector, both at national and international levels; arms embargoes and other economic sanctions imposed on Pakistan, must be lifted or at least modified after critical reconsideration of their adverse impacts on the economic growth  and technological advancement of Pakistan; lastly it was proposed in the workshop that people from different fields be brought together under one common agenda, for making practical contributions towards ensuring a developed and sustainable high-tech industry in Pakistan, most important of  which are the traders, industrialists, scientists and policy makers.

The core objective of the workshop was to spread awareness regarding the importance of High-Tech industry at present as well as in the near future. Speakers from Pakistan’s side highlighted the need for technological development as a pre requisite for fulfilling Pakistan’s aspirations of becoming a member of the group of industrially advanced countries. The speakers emphasized that development of technology is necessary and mandatory for industrialization, energy growth, exploration, and mapping and mining of natural resources. It was proposed at the workshop that Information and Communication Technologies are needed to sustain an indigenous High Tech manufacturing industry; for transportation, avionics, defence and space applications, health, agriculture and natural and applied sciences amongst others. Such technologies are also needed for protection, development and exploitation of Pakistan’s national assets.

The representatives from Industrial sector and Chambers of Commerce highlighted three important and essential ingredients needed for high-tech development inPakistan. These include: Skill Development and Support for Research, Information & Communication Technology (ICT) Infrastructure & Technology Readiness and Transfer of Innovative technology to Industry. This workshop was attended by the Minister for Information and Broadcasting Mr. Syed Samsam Ali Bukhari, Officials from Ministry of Industry and Commerce, Heads of Chambers of Commerce, Officials from Strategic Plans Division (SPD), Scientists and Engineers from Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences (PIEAS), Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA), National Defense University (NDU), and Quaid-e-Azam University (QAU). In addition renowned Scholars, Senators, Politicians and more than 40 Diplomats also attended the workshop.


 

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Workshop: Pak-Rus Collaboration & the Afghan Crisis http://www.sassi.org/?p=1362 http://www.sassi.org/?p=1362#comments Sat, 19 May 2012 06:54:04 +0000 admin http://www.sassi.org/?p=1362 Organized by

South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)

In collaboration with

Center for War and Peace Studies, Moscow State University

 On November 01, 2010

Workshop Concept

Since the fateful 9/11 terrorist attacks, ‘quick and painless transformation’ of the Afghan policy has been the thrust of theUSefforts and theUSled ‘war against terrorism’ inAfghanistan. This has however, led to an almost decade long state of intransigence; political instability; radicalization and growing unrest inAfghanistan; with rather marginal success in the declared war objectives.

Afghanistanremains central to the international efforts for attaining stability both at the regional and at the global level. With no resolution in sight, and the American end game in Afghanistan entering its first phase aimed at a gradual troop withdrawal; and containment of the conflict to the border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan, this accompanied with a US desire to shift the security responsibilities of the conflict to Afghan security authorities; the only clarity in the war objectives of all warring factions and extra regional actors in the conflict is their respective war weariness and a need for a respectful Peace.

Peace however remains elusive as the human and material cost of the conflict to the coalition forces, the Afghan people and the major strategic ally Pakistan remains high. The coalition has suffered a record 501 casualties in 2010 alone, in comparison to 527 over the last nine years. Like wise the US troop casualties have amounted to over 1000 plus in the ten- year war experience with the greatest material and human cost suffered by Pakistan with almost , 32000 civil and military casualties since 2001.

This colossal human loss nonetheless has not resulted in peace in Afghanistan, for in the absence of a centre of gravity for conflict resolution in Afghanistan or definitive politico-war objectives the crisis has compounded with Taliban resurgence, influence on the rise; increased US and Coalition militarized attacks on alleged Al-Qaeda targets , Taliban strong holds and resultant ‘collateral damage.’

 Ten years into the conflict; the war continues with marginal success. With over 1000US and 3000 Afghan casualties over the last two years and according to conservative estimate 68% and liberal estimate of almost 85% of the Afghan territory is under the direct or in direct influence of the Taliban, the political, social and economic security of the country remains in flux. The Pakistani engagement alone in the US led war effort has resulted in almost 12000 civil and military casualties, more than 200 suicide terrorist attacks in Pakistan over the last two years complimented by over a 100 US unauthorized drone strikes and the net cost of this engagement being almost a 100 billion dollars ; the relationship between all three major interlocutors ; stake holders in Afghanistan remains fragile and risky at best and fraught with mistrust and a credibility crisis between allies and all warring parties.

With the conflict going into a spiral, the blow back of the ten-year conflict has been the worst for Pakistan as its engagement with theUSin global ‘war against terror’, has not been accompanied by a positive engagement model, rather the US has relied on a carrot and stick policy. Furthermore, the net cost of instability in Afghanistan has resulted in increased radicalization and terrorism withinPakistanalmost over 100 suicide attacks and 1300 terrorist attacks in 2009-2010.Pakistan on the other hand, has engaged proactively through its multi-tier counter terrorism strategy based on socio-economic and politico-military solution. The results have been encouraging, as also exhibited in Swat and in South Waziristan. Nevertheless, the cost of the operations has been massive impacting on the economic potential ofPakistanwhich was further compounded by political instability and worsening Indo-Pakistan relations.

In short , Islamabad is faced with a host of internal and external pressures in the shape of violent extremism , growing sectarianism, militant separatism, foreign fighters, extra national agencies, failing economy and natural disasters; in addition with growing Indian presence in Afghanistan the prospects of a two front threat has become more real to the Pakistani strategic threat perception.

Despite Pakistan’s un-precedented support to the coalition forces and United States, Islamabad has received mixed signals from Washington with almost over 189 illegal US drone attacks inside Pakistani tribal areas leading to a death toll of more than 2000 and the demands from the US remaining fluid ranging from more cooperation to an outright request for a full-scale military operations in north Waziristan.

These demands are made in the backdrop of worsening security and political situation in Afghanistan and two contradictory trends of reconciliation with the Afghan Taliban and a possibility of surge operations; all adding to the assumption made in the Obama administration’s Af-Pak policy, which places the onus of the conflict on Pakistan whereas in reality it is the uncertainty of the afghan peace process, if there is any, that reflects on the broader security trends of  Pakistan ‘s politico- security situation and counter terrorism success.

The initial war effort was launched with the assumptions inter-alia: that Afghanistan will naturally evolve into a democratic state; Taliban movement was not indigenous and had no grass roots acceptance; the tribal nature of society could be reformed in the next ten years as a modern state; the affects of the first Afghan war could be reversed; dismantlement of the Al –Qaeda save havens in Afghanistan; Containment of the conflict to Pushtoon dominated areas under the context that ‘all Pushtoon are not Taliban but all Taliban are Pushtoons’; Pushtoon influence and predominance in the political set up of the Afghanistan would marginalize other ethnicities and would be tantamount to an over extended role for Pakistan and Pakistani security agencies; spoil the conflict in favour of the regional proxies; the Taliban support had its bases in Pakistani controlled tribal areas; narcotics and drug related issues were not be considered as part of the Afghan crisis although they have contributed to the over deteriorating circumstances in Afghanistan; The war effort by ISAF; NATO and US was considered by the Afghan populous as war of liberation and not an invasion.

 The deterioration in the Afghan situation has led to rethink by the US administration, other stakeholders as well by the major regional countries most affected by the conflict including Pakistan and Russia to review their respective Afghan policy and objectives. The US Afghan strategy is unrealistic and at odds with other possible pragmatic approaches to a political settlement, it’s over reliance on military use renders it incapable of facilitating proactive political reconciliation. Arguably the US government has sold the ‘Wrong War’, with convoluted objectives to its people and must re invent its role and strategy to enable the current administration to devise a viable exit strategy that must in cooperate its stated future objectives of disallowing Al-Qaeda sanctuary in Afghanistan and to lay the grounds for the possible development of democratic institution in Afghanistan.

 It is imperative that the exit is linked with to a minimum level of stabilization of the situation since other regional players are understandably wary of the adverse ramifications of any ill-planned withdrawal as there is a great convergence of competing and conflicting national interests in the region which are linked to Afghanistan.

Time is of essence inAfghanistan, the world tends to favor an early negotiated settlement. US would like the same but only after what it believes asserting its military supremacy and to negotiate from the position of strength. The Afghan government must play the lead in this political process however its capacity is still found wanting. Other regional players too have critical role to play. It is time to play and create an international synergy between competing national interests, time to build and ensure that the Afghan government is able to play the desired role, time for US to make an incisive reassessment of its policies and need to adapt and change. For all this to happen all stake holders need to put aside short term gain with long term dividends of working together.

The permanence of the Russia-Pakistan variable in the Afghan equation is a reality which the world will ignore to its own peril. No Afghanistan solution would be possible or viable without Russia’s active involvement; which also gains extra significance because of its influence in Central Asian States and likewise no peace can be durable in Afghanistan without Pakistan. That, theUSand the coalition can win inAfghanistanis an arguable uncertainty but what is certain is that without Pakistan’s help the west can neither exit nor even loose gracefully and with minimum cost.

The core objective of the workshop was to break away from the dominant discourse shaped by decades of bias and to focus on developing an alternative narrative for the Afghan peace process and possible way forward through regional cooperation. The workshop also highlighted possible cooperation betweenPakistanandRussiain bilateral relations.

The workshop also provided a parallel narrative placing the Afghan question in the correct regional perspective rather than it being erroneously perceived as a matter concerning western interests and priorities. Accordingly, the Russian perspective attains paramount importance which needs to be understood without any shades of old earlier misconceptions.

The workshop enabled both sides to find common grounds and a strong bilateral equation independent of other bilateral relations as Pakistan and Russia have strongest historical and strategic legitimate interests in Afghanistan and for peace and stability inAfghanistanit is essential for the two to devise a complimenting approach.

Therefore, the aim of the one day international workshop arranged by the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute titled “Pakistan-Russia cooperation and Afghan crisis” was to analyse the various dynamics of the conflict and to deliberate on possible way forward.

 Core Objectives of the Conference

 1-      To highlight the Afghan security situation and impact on the region.

 2-      To discuss and build-up relations withAfghanistanby developing interaction withRussia.

 3-      To analyse the internal political situation in Afghanistan

 4-      To assess the role of regional/extra regional forces in Afghanistan

 5-      To analyse the security situation and turmoil in Afghanistan and come up with concrete measurable solutions

 6-      To analyse the entities which are involved directly or partially in Opium harvesting, Heroin production and Narcotics trafficking in Afghanistan

 7-      To develop mutual co-operation between Pakistan and Russia on solving the problems of Narcotics-trafficking from Afghanistan.

 8-      To assess and analyse the Social-Economic situation in Afghanistan

 9-      To build consensus among the Regional actors including Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asian States to cooperate and coordinate for the long term peace and stability of Afghanistan

 10-  To assess the Indian role in Afghanistan and highlight its implications for Pakistan and for the whole region.

11-  To assess the role of United Nations for the peace and stability in Afghanistan

12-  To propose some viable options/solutions/recommendations/policy options for the rehabilitation, reconstruction and development of Afghanistan.

Questions  addressed

How regional co-operation for peace in Afghanistandeveloped between Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Chinaand Central Asian States?

 

Session II- Afghan Conflict: Issues and definitional Paradox

  1. What is the Russian approach towards Afghan issues?
  2. What is Pakistan’s approach towards Afghan issues?
  3. How can Pakistan and Russia co-operate for peace in Afghanistan?

Session III – Solution to the Afghan Impasse

  1. What role will resurgence of Taliban play inAfghanistan?
  2. What can be the consequences of NATO and ISAF failure inAfghanistan?
  3. What are the possible solutions to stop Narcotics trafficking from Afghanistan to Central Asia and Russia?
  4. Is the Mineral Resources of Afghanistan part of New Great Game in the region?

Session IV–Role of Regional/Extra Regional Forces in Afghanistan

  1. What is the role of Regional and Extra Regional Forces inAfghanistan?
  2. What are the implications of Regional and Extra Regional Forces in Afghanistan over Pakistan, Afghanistan and Russia?
  3. HowPakistanseeIndia’s growing influence inAfghanistan?
  4. What is the possible political solution for Afghan impasse?

 Session V- Concluding Session

  1. What rolePakistanandRussiacan play for Afghan Political stability?
  2. What are the areas of cooperation betweenPakistanandRussiafor Afghan peace?
  3. What role UN can play to solve Afghan problem?

Conference Report

Mr.Saleem Safi stated that Afghanistan has a long history of wars and violence. Americans, ISAF and NATO troops are struggling in Afghanistan. In fact they are losing the battle and facing humiliating defeat at the hands of the Taliban. He was of the view that regional approach should be adopted for the peace and stability in Afghanistan. For that Pakistan, Indian Russia andIran should work together.

India and Pakistan are fighting their own battles in Afghanistan. However Pakistan and India has legitimate security, economic and cultural stakes in Afghanistan. Iran and Russia also have stakes in Afghanistan. But Pakistan will not like pro-Indian set up in Afghanistan. He said Pakistanis looking with suspicion on Indian growing influence in Afghanistan. It has serious implications and challenges for the Pakistani security. Pakistani establishment thinks that U.S and India want to minimize Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan.

Moreover if NATO and Pakistan can become partners in the War on Terror and in other security issues then why can Russia and Pakistan not become partners in stabilizing the Afghanistan security situation. He strongly stressed the need for regionally coordinated efforts from Pakistan, India, Russia and Iran for bringing peace and prosperity in Afghanistan.

  Dr. Ivan Safranchuk was of the view that regional cooperation and external influence can be useful for the peace and stability inAfghanistan but it is difficult to say that it is the only solution. He argued that the main aim of this workshop was to explore options not solutions.

He questioned the regional approach by asking “do we have the regional mechanisms to deal with this kind of crisis?” He said that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is the only regional cooperation forum which we have, and it can play a positive role in stabilizing the worsening security situation in Afghanistan.

He elaborated four points which are necessary for the stability and development of Afghanistan.

  1. Regional agreements
  2. Integrity ofAfghanistan
  3. Strong local governments
  4. Emphasis on social welfare in Afghanistan/social development/economics & trade

He further highlighted the importance of these four points which have significant importance in restoring peace and prosperity in Afghanistan. He added that drug trafficking is playing a very important role in the Afghan insurgency, and it is the responsibility of the regional countries to play a constructive role in tackling the drug trafficking.

Dr. Ishtiaq Ahmed said Pakistan’s geo-strategic location has madePakistan an energy corridor for neighbouring and regional countries. He elaborated further that due toAfghanistan instability and historic enmity between Pakistan and India have blocked this dream to become reality.

He enumerated Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India gas pipeline (TAPI) and IPI (Iran-Pakistan and India gas pipeline) as potential projects which are mutually beneficial for the regional countries. It will also bring closer South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia and will create a forum to discuss regional issues such security, economy and trade.

 Mr.Hamid Hamza said that Afghanistan has been left alone and abandoned by the U.S and the West after the Soviet withdrawal. Afghanistan again came into the limelight after 9/11 incident. He categorically rejected the notion of using force in Afghanistan. He said that the Afghan issue can not be resolved through military means.

Furthermore Pakistan and Russia must work together for peace and stability in Afghanistan. Regional approach is the need of the hour and an American backed peace jirga will remain symbolic. Moreover Pakistan and Afghanistan should work together to root out the menace of terrorism and drug trafficking from their countries.

Dr. Shabana Fayyaz elaborated the Russian President vision which are based upon four “I”s (information, innovation or idea, investment). She said that this approach should be adopted in the light of regional environment for stabilizing theAfghanistan issue.

She proposed a new idea by saying that the Russian image should be re-engineered in Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is also need to re-engineer Pakistan’s image in Russia. She quoted the example of U.S and Russia’s new emerging relationship.

She further mandated that we should use “Sufi Islam”, which is based upon tolerance and love,to counter the fundamentalism and extremism in Islamic counties and especially in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Mr. Khalid Aziz believed that war on terror in Afghanistan is strategically lost by the U.S and NATO. Due to worsening situation in Afghanistan mistrust between allies are creeping. He argued that regional approach is necessary for the peace and stability of Afghanistan but at the moment there is no regional mechanism is available. Moreover he that that here some of the analysts talked about Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) role in Afghanistan. He had a different view regarding the notion and stated that SCO with a budget of 4$ millions dollars can not serve as a productive mechanism for stabilizing the Afghanistan’s security situation.

Mr. Rustum Shah Mohmand said that there is a full scale insurgency going on in Afghanistan and the Taliban, Gulbadin’s Hizbe-islami and Hibbul Wahdat are jointly fighting against NATO and ISAF. Karzai’s corrupt government is restricted to the outskirts of Kabul. The Taliban and others warring groups are in control of 65% of territory of Afghanistan. Afghan resistance led by the Taliban is indigenous, however some foreign fighters are also involved. He said according to CIA Chief there are only 50 Al-Qaida fighters are operating in Afghanistan. But American and NATO forces have failed to hunt down these handful Al-Qaida fighters.

Mr. Tariq Mohiyuddin stated that Afghanistan can not blame for poppy cultivation. There are big giants, who are involved in drug trafficking and illicit businesses. In his view, a regional approach is the need of the hour and Afghanistan’s solution should not come from outside but from within Afghanistan.

Mrs. Safia Siddiqui pointed out that exclusion of Taliban from political process was the biggest mistake, done by international community at the time of Bonn Agreement. Moreover Indo-Pak rivalry has also been another factor which had a negative impact on Afghanistan security situation. She was of the view that regional countries are pursuing their own proxy wars in Afghanistan to promote their political interests. She also highlighted the illicit drug trafficking and its repercussion on Afghan people.

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Workshop: Indian Military’s Cold Start Doctrine & Implications http://www.sassi.org/?p=1358 http://www.sassi.org/?p=1358#comments Sat, 19 May 2012 06:15:05 +0000 admin http://www.sassi.org/?p=1358 Organized By:

South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI)

20-22 July 2010

WORKSHOP CONCEPT

 

On April 28 th 2004, the Indian Chief of Army Staff General Padmanabhan initiated the process of formulating a new war doctrine, entitled ‘Cold Start’ which revolves around the employment of “integrated battle groups” for offensive operations.

According General Padmanbhan, the Indian ‘Cold Start’ will be attempted whenever possible to achieve surprise and maximize gains.  The entire border is likely to be activated with shallow thrusts, very heavy firepower and short span maneuvers. Nuclear weapons may not be used; their use may, however, be threatened. Special Forces and coup-de-main forces will play a major role. Integrated action by all three services will be crucial for the enhancement of our combat power vis-à-vis the adversary’s. Levels of technology employed in the wars will be higher than at present. Wars will end in stalemate, with little or no gain, and heavy losses to military as well as civilian targets. In the case ofBangladesh, the threat is of such a low level as to be non-serious. However in the skirmishing, the danger of casualties to unarmed civilians will be great and will need to be handled with firmness and imagination.

The strategy unveiled in 2004 has taken a significant importance with the statement given by the Indian Chief of the Army Staff General Deepak Kapoor in November 2009 that the possibility of a limited war under a ‘nuclear overhang’ in the region was likely to exist and reality.

Cold Start Doctrine: Implications for the Strategic Stability in South Asia

The South Asian Strategic Stability Institute organized a Workshop on “Indian Military’s Cold Start Doctrine and its Implications for Strategic Stability in South Asia” from 20-22 July 2010. At dinner hosted by SASSI Samsaam Bukhari on behalf of Sardar Salim Haider Khan, Minister of State for Defense Production, congratulated and appreciated SASSI for organizing the event on a topic which has great relevance to the future security discourse of India and Pakistan; with possible repercussions on international security. At the centre of the global strategic corridors Pakistan is in a unique position of historic, regional and global power struggles. This special geo-strategic significance confers an extraordinary role and importance to Pakistan as not only a key player at the regional level but also at the international level.

Additionally he said the significance at this moment draws strength both from the positive and the negative developments in the regional security milieu; here my reference is to the global war against terror and the resultant consequences which has made region alive to threat of terrorism with trans-nationalism being a central component. Moreover he was of the view that positives are the determined efforts byPakistanto curb this menace insidePakistanand the high success rate that has been reached in achieving the goal of stability and security. The security challenges are however compounded by the permanent security context faced byPakistanespecially the threat from the eastern borders and the climate of animosity; this needs to be addressed in a positive and constructive manner in which this relationship of conflict can be changed into a relationship of peace and security.

Director General South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) Maria Sultan highlighted the goal of the workshop which was to bring together think tanks and experts from around the world, as well as government officials and specialists from international and national organizations to work on the evolving discourse of Cold Start Doctrine and regional stability.

She proposed a new theory of Integrated Strategic Equivalence asPakistan’s possible counter measures to Cold Start Doctrine. She said its objective was to ensure thatPakistanno longer feared the threat of pre-emption. She added that the use of sub-critical or fourth generation nuclear weapons as a measure for creating intra-war deterrence is required, especially after the initiation of Cold Start Doctrine.

Air.Cmdr Khalid Banuri in his comments appreciated efforts made by SASSI. Later he added that such discussions often begin with the theoretical determination of intentions versus capabilities. Mr. Banuri saidIndiashould thin its force along the border withPakistanif international community expects fromPakistanto cut down its deployment from eastern border to focus on FATA.

Lt. Gen. (R) Hamid Khan highlighted Indian military’s weakness in the operationalization of the Cold Start Doctrine. The Indian Military having seen their weakness of mobilization during the standoff during 2002 decided to have a relook at their existing doctrine with the aim of offsetting thePakistanadvantage of quicker mobilization.  They also need to reorganize because offensive formations need a better punch than defensive formations. Tanks, long range artillery and superior mobility are essential. He emphasized that ifIndiamay start operations with air strikes which achieve both strategic surprise and degradation ofPakistan’s military in its garrisons and airbases, for this they require 60 to 70 squadrons. At present they have only 37 squadrons which they are likely to increase to 47 by 2012 and 50 by 2015. Lt. Gen. Hamid Khan also highlightedPakistan’s lack of strategic depth as an opportunity.  In the end Lt. Gen. Hamid Khan said that to implement this doctrine Indian armed forces need some time and the earliest they might be able to make it operational will not be before 2015 when they have their air force reorganized and forward cantonments built.

Dr. Jaspal stated that Indian posture was defensive before Cold Start Doctrine. After the induction of nuclear weapons conventional superiority had been compromised. SoIndiadecided to introduce Cold Start Doctrine to carry out limited war againstPakistanand remain below the nuclear threshold ofPakistan. Further he said thatIndiareformed its strike forces into eight Integrated Battle Groups to cut short its mobilization time and carry out quick and swift attacks againstPakistan.Indiais spending billions of dollars to overcome their military deficiency which has provoked an arms race inSouth Asia. He made his point saying that main focus of Cold Start Doctrine is onPakistan, butIndialinks it withChina. In reality latest tanks and other latest equipment cannot be used in Himalaya againstChinabut they will be used againstPakistan. Dr. Jaspal advocated Azm-I-Nau exercise to counter Cold Start Doctrine. In the concluding remarks he said thatPakistanis fully prepared to meet Indian Cold Start Doctrine.

In break out plenary session Mr. Masood-ur.Rehman Khattak, Research Fellow, SASSI presented his paper on “Indian Cold Start Doctrine: Capabilities and Limitations”. In his presentation he emphasized on regional security and said that South Asian security is in peril because of the Indian Cold Start Doctrine. Further he cautioned that Cold Start Doctrine has the potential not only to operationalise Indian military doctrine on the basis of pre-emption but can also trigger a nuclear conflict. He said Deterrence inSouth Asiais delicate because of rapid militarization and operationalization of Cold Start Doctrine. In concluding remarks Mr. Masood said, the conception of limited war will push the region into further instability. The danger of escalation will also increase. Cold Start Doctrine overlooks the fact that in a crisis the nuclear threshold will be uncertain.

SASSI research fellows coordinated ‘War Games’. In these war games, participants of the workshop were divided into different sections. All of the participants were very interested to present their role in these war games. One of these war games scenarios was about year 2017.

In another war game scenario, an unexpected terrorist attack takes place at Bangalore Silicon Valley which is known as the IT centre ofIndia. 10 terrorists enter the building where influential Indian IT company’s offices are located. Terrorists kill almost 500 civilian workers. The Indian army commandos conduct operations against the terrorist kill all terrorists. However terrorists’ identification is not known. But Indian media starts blamingPakistanfor initiating such attacks. Indian political leaders vow to give a hard-hitting response toPakistanfor carrying out such attacks.

Third session of the workshop was about Cold Start Doctrine assumptions. Brig(Rtd) Naeem Salik discussed deeply the Cold Start assumptions and its implication on strategic stability ofSouth Asia. He said thatIndia’s political leadership would be as prone to taking the risk of a nuclear escalation as the Indian military and would be willing to loosen its grip over the military and thatIndia’s political decision makers/civilian bureaucracy will somehow become as nimble in their decision making as the IBG commanders.

Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal said that the Cold Start Doctrine has boosted the strategic optimism of the Indian strategic pundits. The supporter and propagator of the doctrine have sketched interesting operational advantageous scenarios. The Revolution in Military Affairs obviously restructures and multiplies Indian Armed forces striking power. The increasing war-fighting capability of Indian forces has been boosting Indian ruling elites’ strategic sense of superiority, which could entail devastating misperception and miscalculation about strategic competitor’s defensive capabilities. This state of mind has been augmenting destabilizing hypothetical advantageous assumptions inNew Delhi. Consequently, the Indians style of diplomacy is increasingly becoming dogmatic and coercive inSouth Asia.

Lt. Gen. Asad Durrani said that in the mid 1980s, the Indian Army started mechanizing some of its infantry formations. The reorganized divisions were given the acronym of RAPID. At that time it was considered merely part of a process all modern armies undergo, to enhance mobility. In due course, the concept for their employment also started becoming a little clear. In all its conflicts with Pakistan- wars, as well as periods of tension that led to full mobilization- the Indian military had needed 4-6 weeks to assemble its forces on the borders. That gives Pakistani forces sufficient time to carry out counter measures and make a reasonable assessment of the adversary’s likely war plans. Considering, that there are means available to make up for this unavoidable lag and achieve strategic/ battlefield deception, in a conventional war scenario, this was forIndianot a decisive disadvantage.

Dr. Rodney Jones in his speech said that in implementing Cold Start Doctrine againstPakistan,Indiawould take advantage of the terrorism that is prevailing inPakistan. He said that it is very difficult forPakistanto cope up with the military technological advancements to maintain a conventional status quo withIndia. At the same timePakistanneeds to have advanced military technology to remain an effective deterrent toIndia. Indian implementation of cold start doctrine will adversely affect the strategic stability of South Asian region and this will lead to a never-ending arms race in this region.

Mr. Zafar Ali started his presentation with the historical background of Cold Start Doctrine. In which he discussed Sunderji’s concept briefly. He said realist would focus on the military might at economic and social expense of states making out of the box thinking impossible. He further said that from the Realists’ perspective,Pakistanshould be taking counter measures to balance against the threat. He further said that while there appears similarities to the Cold War model there are also stark differences.

In his speech Brig Khurshid said that since the creation ofIndiaandPakistan, both countries have been involved in several conflicts that continue to pose the risk of inadvertent war. The terrorism phenomenon is an additional factor that has all ingredients to explode the situation out of proportion thus inviting more troubles in the region.   Unlike in the past, any future war between the two countries, no matter how limited it might be, will have the potential to escalate into a full-scale nuclear war.

Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema said that there are number of rationales forIndia’s formulation of its aggressive Cold Start conventional military doctrine. Primarily however, Indian frustration with the failure of its military operation Parakram in 2002, wherein it mobilized bulk of its armed forces againstPakistanimmediately after an attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001, provided the apparent rationale for reformulation of the Indian military doctrine.

Ms. Sobia Saeed Paracha, Research Fellow, SASSI discussed the structural context of cold start doctrine and its underlying assumptions. She structured her presentation on Indian stated and actual assumptions, which were differentiated on the bases of how they are being stated and how they might actually be operationalized based on the patterns of Indian preparation and their perceptions about possible Pakistani response.

The chief guest of the conference, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Foreign Minister of Pakistan said that the subject chosen by SASSI for this workshop “Indian Military’s Cold Start Doctrine and its Implications for Strategic Stability inSouth Asia” is both ironic and provocative. It is ironic as only last week I hosted His Excellency S.M. Krishna, Foreign Minister of India inIslamabadas part of our efforts to recommence stalled dialogue in pursuit of our endeavors for durable peace in the region, albeit without a corresponding positive response.

In conclusion he said thatPakistanandIndiashould work together to institute a sustained dialogue for peace, stability and prosperity inSouth Asia. We should not remain hostage to our troubled past. We must rise to the occasion and take bold decisions to lead our people to a more hopeful and promising future.

Ms. Sajida Mansoor, Research Fellow, SASSI discussed the issue of military developments in line with Cold Start Doctrine and their implications for an arms race in South Asia. She highlighted that the main objective of this Cold Start Doctrine is to launch a massive offensive conventional attack againstPakistanin multiple sectors that would cause significant damage to thePakistanarmed forces. BothIndiaandPakistanhave maintained a hostile bilateral relationship as a result of various ideological, historical and territorial differences since their independence in 1947. These differences and subsequent disputes have impacted on national security concerns of both the nations and that have eventually led them to opt for continuous arms race by acquiring the latest high-technology defence equipment.Indiacontinues to buildup arms at a fast pace in recent years while equipping its armed forces with the latest jet fighters, warships, radars, tanks, missiles, submarines, weapons systems and platforms. She was of the view that the Indian modern high-technology arms buildup has forcedPakistanto maintain adequately strong military equipment and weaponry to ensure its national security and sovereignty.

Mr. Hamid Hamza said that Cold Start doctrine or 4th generation warfare, Use of 4th generation warfare againstPakistanis a more dangerous and disturbing angle of Indian doctrine which most defense analysts inPakistanhave overlooked.

Mr. Nasir Naveed Dogar explained the definitions of Deterrence and Strategic Stability. After that he said that Indian Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) will have significant implications on strategic stability inSouth Asia. After the execution of Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) strategic stability would be disturbed becausePakistanwill have to respond to it to defend its sovereignty and integrity.

Sania Abdullah said that Nationalism at times makes human mind hard nut. Therefore one may be harsh in imagination but one fact is clear that nuclear weapons keep caution on our thinking to make it rational. The failure of deterrence among nuclear weapons states is disaster and a lose-lose game for each party to the conflict. The military capabilities of both states as a result of the massive arms race were to maintain deterrence at minimum credible level.

Dr. Tanvir Ahmed Khan expressed his views by saying that the strategic stability revolves primarily around the development of a relation of mutual deterrence among the adversaries. It can be broadly viewed as a result of effective deterrence. Its remit goes beyond nuclear stability to include the wider issues of chemical, biological weapons and conventional force balance.

Tariq Osman Haider outlined two basic parameters of this entire exercise in which we are engaged in regarding the Indian Cold Start or as it is also known by them as their Proactive Doctrine.  On the one hand, it is important to draw international attention to an essentially aggressive doctrine which is at variance by the pronouncement of the Indian political leadership thatIndiahas no aggressive designs againstPakistanand wishes to develop better relations and to live in peace withPakistan.

Former Ambassador Sarwar Ali Naqvi said that perhaps the most important, and in all likelihood, the most immediate response to a Cold Start offensive againstPakistanon the part ofIndiawould be that ofChina. Important because it would be a determining factor in the eventual outcome of the debacle, and immediate because ofChina’s proximity to bothPakistanandIndia. While there does not seem to be any official Chinese comment or position on Cold Start as such, it would be my endeavor to deduce the contours of a likely Chinese response on the basis of a broad survey of Pakistan-China relations followed by a surmise regarding the response in the context of the present situation. I will then briefly look at the East Asian response.

Brig. Feroz Hassan Khan presented on” Threat of Two-front War under Cold Start Doctrine and Role of EU/NATO.” He stated, “Indiaclaims that with the implementation of the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD), it can engage bothPakistanandChinain a “two-front war” based on the perception thatIndiais prepared to effectively meet simultaneous threats fromChinaon the Northern borders andPakistanon the Western borders. He further discussed the role of NATO and European Union (EU) in the crisis situation betweenIndiaandPakistan. He stated, there should be efforts made by these significant groups of influence to ease out the war-like situation before its escalation. Substantial role of NATO and European Union (EU) is required in this scenario if war breaks out with regards to the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD).

Dr. Noman gave his views on the Cold start doctrine and national response. He mentioned that thePakistan’s national response will be at three levels; Doctrinal, operational and political. He stated the three options thatPakistancould go for. These are; Defuse conflict situation, engage/embroil and escalate—Fight. In addition, he said thatIndiamust take into accountPakistan’s nuclear threshold and must not ignore the response fromChinaand US.

Former Foreign Secretary, Akram Zaki, said thatPakistanhas the ability and credibility to counter any Indian aggression whether conventional or unconventional. Cold Start Doctrine initiated instability and concerns among regional and international community that any future war betweenIndiaandPakistanwould escalate to nuclear war.Pakistanis peaceful state and wanted to resolve the issues through negotiations and amicably.

The breakout session for national response was through a war game, which was based on an assumed scenario, portraying the implication of the Indian cold start doctrine againstPakistan. The scenario was such that a massive terrorist attack had taken place inIndiain the year 2015, and making it as the basis,Indiahas attackedPakistanat Kasur. Right in accordance with the doctrine,Indiaalso opened a multiple thrust, surprise attack throughout the Pakistani border. This causes a psychological paralysis for the military, political leadership, Government and the masses ofPakistan. In addition, it has greatly affected the decision making body ofPakistan.Indiaalso, apprehended that there is a politico-military discord inPakistan.

Maria Sultan Director General SASSI, in her speech regardingPakistan’s nuclear doctrine and implications for deterrence and strategic stability: the theory of integrated strategic equivalence, said that the future war inSouth Asiacan never remain conventional. Presenting the new theory of Integrated Strategic Equivalence asPakistan’s possible counter measures to Cold Start Doctrine, objective was to ensure thatPakistanno longer feared the threat of pre-emption.

In Concluding Remarks she said the use of Sub-Critical or Fourth Generation nuclear weapons, as a measure for creating intra-war deterrence are required, especially after the initiation of Cold Start Doctrine. This is based on the central idea of deterrence that is communication of threat and the credibility of threat combined with the intention to use force during operations. She said there was a need to study the possible response options available toPakistanin the realm of the nuclear deterrence theory. Whether Cold Start Doctrine has the ability to create a gap between conventional and nuclear deterrence is another question. Currently, the Pakistani deterrence posture is based on minimum credible deterrence and centralized command and control and strategic value targeting its need to be consent given the new changing dynamics of threats and the theory, if strategic equivalence can help to fill up the gap.

Lt. Gen. (R) Tariq Waseem Ghazi said that Cold Start is an aggressive doctrine aimed atPakistan, such a doctrine against a nuclear weapon state will put the region into quagmire of volatility and dismay. Threat of deterrence failure would increase ifIndiaoperationalised her Cold Start Doctrine. The analyses of the level of funding allocated for the modernization of Indian armed forces and its endeavor to overcome its deficiencies, show thatIndiamay operationalize Cold Start Doctrine in next five to ten years.

Dr Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema in his remarks said thatIndiaandPakistanhave fought many wars since independence, including the 1999 Kargil conflict. Though relations at the strategic level continue to be reasonably stable, instability persists inSouth Asia. The Cold Start doctrine is a work-in-being. Its implementation would have major ramifications for strategic stability inSouth Asia. He further said that no Pakistani could ever allow Indian troops to enterPakistanand occupy a strategic area in a so called limited war. The Cold Start Strategy is a variation ofIndia’s plan to take overLahorein 1965. It did not work then, and it will not work with a nuclear armedPakistan.

Gen (retired) Ehsan Ul Haq saidPakistanhad been seeking peaceful resolution to disputes and normalization of relations withIndia. Our defence and security policy have been entirely focused on deterring war, he said that restraint and responsible had been the watchwords of our nuclear policy.

Director General SASSI Maria Sultan said in concluding session that the gravest danger in our times lies in the possibilities of war and conflict. This is perpetuated by the military planning divorced of regional realities and the lack of the ability to control the spiral of violence generated by the non state actors. This reality becomes all the more relevant when we find ourselves at the cross roads of extremism; military adventurism and the probability of a nuclear war.

She added more that Today, the unresolved conflicts around the world  have unfortunately made all of us a future witness to the  probability of wars becoming a reality; a reality which may  become history of this  region if the roots of misadventurism are  not  seriously  reconsidered  by the  politico- military elite of our neighboring country India. For the implications can be far reaching and offsetting for regional peace; if not re-calibrated in the interest of peace.

She welcome the scholarly and deliberate effort made  by the  intellectuals/strategic community through  these  three day workshop on cold start and  its  implications  for  the region to come  up with policy recommendations and perhaps solutions which may help to provide  insights to ways  and  measures to bring about strategic stability in the region. She congratulated the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) for deliberating on this very important subject and its implications for regional and global security order. She further added that we in the Defence Committee of the Senate will benefit from the recommendations that will come through this august gathering of scholars, policy makers and the intelligencia regarding the doctrinal implications for maintaining and managing the crisis through effective and reliable crisis and deterrence stability.

She further said that for any democratically elected government the primary responsibility   remains the upholding of the territorial integrity through defence of borders and security of the state and the people as they pass through turbulent and trying times. In these times, however sovereignty remains the key dominator for all self respecting states and peoples.

Dr. Hans Eberhart concluded the session with the words, “Particularly with regard to the topic “International response” is valid: Politics/diplomacy should come first, the military’s response when needed and called by the government. But, both angles should be embedded into an agreed national security policy/”CSWD”-answer. Apart from further work, as highlighted above, a systematic analysis of the UN Charter could serve. This in order to formulate a consistent, well comprehensible plan of action forPakistanin its action-taking in the international arena.”

 Core Objectives of the Conference: 

  • To highlight the threats to the Strategic Stability in South Asiaby CSD;
  • Describe Indian Cold Start Doctrine;
  • Assumptions of the Doctrine Regional Military Development as Rapid Military Development;
  • To  analyse  the  Military  Capabilities  of  India  and  its  deficiencies  in  the implementation of CSD;
  • Aim to explore Pakistan’s military capabilities to counter CSD;
  • Pakistani Responses and capability Overhaul;
  • Nuclear Doctrinal Challenge;
  • Doctrinal implications on Strategic Stability of the Region;
  • To  draw  on  military  ad  political  measures  for  reducing  threat  ad  ensuing  a relationship of strained and two protagonist states.
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The Organisation http://www.sassi.org/?p=1332 http://www.sassi.org/?p=1332#comments Fri, 18 May 2012 10:52:59 +0000 admin http://www.sassi.org/?p=1332 The Organisation

The South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) is an independent think tank dedicated to promoting peace and stability in South Asia. Its work is focused on strategic stability in the South Asia region, and thus on the emergent nuclear relationship which is at the heart of that stability.

The Institute takes a multi-disciplinary approach aimed at bringing together various streams of thought from across the social and natural sciences, policy makers as well as the academia. We hope to make a leading contribution to regional and international academic and policy-orientated research discourses about South Asian security.

The primary thrust of the work carried out by the Institute revolves around the nuclear questions and debates relating to non-proliferation and disarmament, with a particular focus on finding ways and means to enhance capacity building within and outside the region.

However, our remit goes beyond nuclear stability to include the wider issues of chemical and biological weapons, conventional force balance, civil-military relations, social and political stability, religious extremism, and the disputed territory of Kashmir, which inform the nature of security and stability in the South Asian security complex, and thus impact on the nuclear relationship related security issues. In addition, the Institute hopes to expand its research on issues such as energy politics in the South and South West Asian region.

SASSI seeks to encourage innovation in thinking about these issues and in particular welcomes young scholars and the application of new ideas in the peace and security thinking to the South Asian security problematic. To meet this challenge SASSI’s main objectives are:

  • Engage the academic and policy communities in serious debate over the promotion of strategic stability in South Asia;
  • Promote innovative ideas to reduce tension and build trust and cooperation in the field of WMDs;
  • Contribute to academic and policy processes for establishing an arms control regime for South Asia;
  • Facilitate South Asian scholars in the development of security research capacity in the field of WMDs;
  • Provide an independent and neutral platform for South Asian scholars and other interested parties to engage with South Asian strategic stability issues;
  • To network and cooperate with individuals and organizations across the world with shared objectives;

SASSI also conducts regular workshops, meetings and seminars with renowned academicians, policymakers, and researchers, so as to create an intellectual environment that facilitates furthering our objectives in these fields. The Institute is also working pro-actively to establish close liaison with similar and sister institutes, at both the national and international levels. As a result of these efforts, SASSI has gained recognition, prestige and credibility in an incredibly short span of time. Everyone here at SASSI is dedicated to the ideals of peace and learning, for promoting stability in the region as well as a better understanding of the region both within South Asia and beyond.

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NATO Supply Line and The Up-coming NATO Summit http://www.sassi.org/?p=1284 http://www.sassi.org/?p=1284#comments Thu, 17 May 2012 12:25:00 +0000 admin http://www.sassi.org/?p=1284 By: Tahir Nazir

The issue of NATO supply line is getting complicated day by day, after the alleged killing of Pakistani soldiers at Salala check post by the U.S led NATO army. In an immediate response to this tragic incident,Pakistan had shutdown the NATO supply line and demanded formal apology from the U.S.Furthermore this matter was debated in the Pakistani Parliament.Pakistan’s Parliamentary committee on national security re-examine the terms of engagements between Pakistan and U.S.The committee drafted the recommendations and tabled it in the Parliament. The parliament unanimously passed that resolution.

The resolution has given power to the political leadership to renegotiate the rules of engagement with United States regarding the cooperation in the Global war on terrorism in Afghanistan, restoration of NATO supply line and the controversial U.S drone strikes. After the reassessment,Pakistan demanded an unconditional apology for the Salala incident, proposed taxation on NATO Containers and urged the U.S to stop drone strikes.

In response to above mentioned Parliamentary recommendations the United States started pressurizing Pakistan.  Firstly,Pakistan has not been invited to attend the NATO Chicago Summit, where NATO and allied countries will discuss the future of Afghanistan. Secondly the U.S has continued its old policy of drone strikes. Thirdly the US House Armed Services Committee approved the Defense Authorization Act Fiscal Year 2013. According to this Act Pakistan will be denied $800 million to Pakistan from a special fund for training and equipping Pakistan’s military in counter-insurgency tactics.

Moreover the U.S defense Act, ‘Section 1217’ contains amendments that require the Secretary of defense to submit an update on the ‘strategy to utilize the fund, and the metrics used to determine progress with respect to the fund’. Furthermore the secretary of defense will also have to certify that Pakistanis committed to ‘supporting counter-terrorism operations against Al Qaeda, its associated movements, and the Haqqani network’.

Also the Secretary Defense has to clarify that Pakistanis “preventing the proliferation of nuclear-related material and expertise; and issuing visas in a timely manner for United States visitors engaged in counter-terrorism’.

The above mentioned trends are alarming for the Pakistan’s political and military leadership. If Pakistan does not accept U.S and NATO demand for the resumption of NATO Supply line then it will severely damage Pakistan’s international image and it will isolate Pakistan from international community. Moreover Pakistanwill loose its influence in shaping Afghan end game.

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Pakistan and the NATO Supply Routes Blockade http://www.sassi.org/?p=1279 http://www.sassi.org/?p=1279#comments Thu, 17 May 2012 12:22:16 +0000 admin http://www.sassi.org/?p=1279 By: Mateah Aqeel

Pakistan had blocked the NATO supply routes when the NATO forces’ cross border attack that had shot dead 24 Pakistani soldiers in the Sallala incident in November 2011 and are blocked as of 2012. The US wants to negotiate with Pakistan to open the supply routes to Afghanistan as Pakistanis having a strategic location for United States in the region.

U.S State Department spokeswoman, Victoria Nuland, said that “We’re still seeking to come to an arrangement on how we can get the GLOCs (ground line of communication) open. We think it’s important for us, it’s important for a peaceful, stable situation in Afghanistan, and it’s obviously that would be in Pakistan’s interest as well.”

The 35th meeting of Tripartite Commission (Pak-Afghan-U.S. officials) was held at GHQ was on 13 th of May, 2012 to discuss several issues that included the crash restoration of the NATO supply route to Afghanistan.U.S. wants Pakistan to open the supply routes as this route is having less expense for U.S.

In the meeting General Allen was very much interested in the restoration of NATO supply but General Kiyani clearly stated that this decision will be taken by the Parliament of Pakistan and recommendations for this had already been given which includes the unconditional apology from the U.S over the Sallala incident and the ending of the drone attacks in the Pakistani territory. The Parliamentary Committee on National Security and Defence Committee of the Cabinet (DCC) separately held numerous rounds of talks over the issue. But the U.S reluctance is delaying the opening of the routes.

Pakistan and U.S. bilateral relations have been going through the tense scenario since September but these kind of meetings show that the relations are on ease now, however on the very other side the NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that if Pakistan does not reopen supply routes in time then it could miss out the important summit on the future of Afghanistan, to be held in Chicago on May 20-21

A bill by Congress Congressional Committee was also passed imposing conditions on Pakistan for receiving American economic and military aid. It prohibits the preferential procurement of goods or services from Pakistan till Islamabad re-opens the NATO supply routes.

Pakistanis facing international pressure for opening the routes as Pakistan supplies U.S with the shortest and the cheapest routes for the NATO supply. And seeing these pressure Pakistani politicians are also showing support towards opening the supply.

The suspension should be held in order to realize United Stated its mistake and the dual policies, Pakistan should take a stand against it and keep on blocking the NATO supply routes. As Pakistanis having a strategically important route so U.S is trying with pressurizing Pakistan to open the trade routes. But Pakistan should show a stable attitude and use the situation for its national interests.

As far as the inclusion of Pakistan to attend the Chicago Summit is concerned we may say that without any clarity on several issues between U.S and Pakistan, the summit may become meaningless for Pakistan specially. In my view the absence of Pakistan will create a vacant space as Pakistancannot be ignored in terms of solutions related to Afghanistan.

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